Episode #3, Insights on the Iran - Israel Contlict

In this episode, Murad Ismael reflects on the long history behind the Iran-Israel conflict, explaining how it stems from decades of political power struggles, regional rivalries, and manufactured enemies. He stresses the need to look beyond war and violence toward a future built on peace, dignity, and protecting the rights of ordinary people in the region.

Chapters

• 0:23 Origins of the Israel-Iran Conflict
• 8:42 Iran's Regional Proxy Strategy
• 18:26 Shifting Balance of Power
• 27:03 Israel's Strategic Air Superiority
• 34:14 US Role and Potential Intervention
• 40:23 Future of the Iranian Regime
• 46:29 Regional Implications and Path Forward

Transcript

Murad Ismael: 0:23

Hello, welcome to my podcast again. I would like to discuss, this time, the war between Israel and Iran. While the war has effectively started between the two countries, this war has really actually started almost 40 years ago, when the Iranian regime took over the power in Iran. They created two large enemies, or two enemies that they decided. One of them is the great Satan and one of them is the little Satan, the United States being the great one and Israel being the little one, and sometimes UK being the little one.

Murad Ismael: 0:59

Now this regime, when it came to power, it followed a regime that was pro-West the Shah was pro-West largely and when they came to power, they replaced it with a theological power system or structure that is based on Shia theology, but it is a very anti-Shia regime. The problem is not with being Shia. The Shia has been having power over Iran for over 500 years. It is the center of the Shia Islam. For over 500 years, and before that also, Shias were a large minority in the region, so it's seen as the center of the Shias in the world. It also projects power through its religious center to other countries like Iraq, syria with the Alawites and other Shias, Lebanon, as well as other Shias of the region as other Shias of the region. It's really, I would say, you know, Iran has really put not only you know, creating an enemy in the media or in a sense of you know, theology or theory of some belief. A country can be built when you create an enemy, a hypothetical enemy, so that you can kind of project the hate toward that regime or toward that side, and that's a way for you to unite people behind you, and that might be the case. I mean, I was just reading about how Khamenei, when he came to power, how he was able to mobilize the Iranian people very quickly and he was able to create the Iranian regime and also impose actually a regime that's really really strict compared to the Persian culture. For people who know the region and people who know Iranians, Iranians are one of the most advanced actually civilizations in that region and also very open-minded community and a very open-minded country.

Murad Ismael: 3:02

But this regime is really an outlier, I would say, to the very culture of the Persian people. But they were able to create this regime and be in power for over 40 years, starting with really trying to be just opposite to the Shah, who was, in a way, corrupt and a lot of Iranians didn't like it, didn't like them, and a lot of people did join also the, let's say, the theological or the religious leadership, to get rid of the previous regime. But when the religious leaders took over the power, they really sidelined everyone else, including the minorities, including the liberals, including the, you know, the national Iranians, and they created, you know, in place of the Shah regime, they created a regime that really, in many ways, is not compatible with the Persian culture. That's why we've seen over the past decades that Iranians have come against this regime in almost every different way or many different ways, but they never were able to really be effective in that opposition, in particular because of the brutality of the regime in Iran, in particular because of the way that they have been able to kill every revolution or possibility of revolution by political executions, by forcing people to leave the country, etc. It really has been. Also, what they did is really what we see now they try to create also in other countries, like Iraq, like Lebanon, like Yemen, with the Revolutionary Guard, basically a force that's outside the traditional Iranian forces, but that its purpose and its goal is to keep the regime and to keep the regime in power, so being a power of more than I think it's about half of the force of the regular Iranian forces. So they've been able to stay in power by being brutal and we've seen, for example, in last year, 2024, around 1,000 Iranians were executed, including more than 30 or around 30 political prisoners who were executed. We have personally met with a lot of the Iranian oppositions, who have faced threats even here in the United States, who the Iranian regime has sent people to kill them. Now you know this war really, as I said, started this episode by talking about it, the war, even though it looks like it started right now, but it did start almost 40 years ago.

Murad Ismael: 5:53

Iran has put all its power into opposing Israel, not as a country or not as a regional power, because to me, the regional powers in the Middle East are really Iran, Turkey, Israel and Saudi and other countries. You know other Sunni countries in the region. Along with the Saudis, they make up the fabric of the power in the region the four powers the Turks, the Iranians, the Saudis and the Sunnis, and then Israel. Iran has put its objective to remove Israel off the map and they've been very vocal about it as well. Iran has created and helped create a lot of the forces that have really, you know, have been, you know, on Israel's throat, for you know, for decades now, whether they are Hamas or whether Hezbollah, whether they are Houthis, whether they're Iraqi or Iran-backed Iraqi militias, that really the way that Iran tried to not only to, you know, to stay in power and to create that, you know, let's say, virtual enemy, by consolidating the power, but also acting on removing Israel off the map.

Murad Ismael: 7:15

And you know, I always really wondered why. Why a country that's really that far, that has at least two, three countries in between them, and Israel, really that far, that has at least two, three countries in between them and Israel, and also, let's say, the Palestinians, is more seen as a Sunni cause or a Sunni Islam issue, is not really a Shia issue. Why a Shia regime or a regime that sees itself represented of the Shia? Why it will, you know, expand its hand or extend its hand all the way over three countries and try to project itself as the power or as the country that is defending Islam or, in this case, defending the Palestinian cause. Now, regardless, how, what do you think about the Palestinian cause and its legitimacy and whether you should support it or not? But from the geopolitical point of view and from the political point of view, economic point of view, iran had no interest in the Palestinian cause.

Murad Ismael: 8:12

What really Iranian intervention into this whole situation has brought Iran? Nothing but sanctions but war, and probably we are in the early days of decline of Iran as civilization, as a country, as a nation, and with it, the decline of the Iranian regime. I think for many people on the other side, for many people, a decline of the Iranian regime would be a win for a lot of people in the region, not just for Israel, not just for the United States. If you look at, for example, the United States' position with Iran, really you know Iran has also put the US as the center of its action and its hatred. A lot of the opposition that was taking place in Iraq, for example, a lot of the violence that took place against the Americans, the Americans place in Iraq, for example, a lot of the violence that took place against the Americans present in Iraq, was produced by Iran. A lot of. If you go back to, let's say, 2004, post-deliberation of Iraq, you see the Iranians really were very effective in killing American soldiers. Some estimate, you know, maybe even more than 4,000 American soldiers were killed by the forces that were backed by Iran. Iran has also worked very hard against the US interest in Iraq Post, you know, even post the withdrawal of the US forces from Iraq in 2011, or reduction in the number of the US forces.

Murad Ismael: 9:42

Still, Iran has functioned in a way inside Iraq, you know, as the opposite side of the US. You know, for example, creating the militias, the Iraqi-backed militias, which is called PMF, which is a group very similar to the Iran Revolutionary Guard, which, I think, to many of us people who know the Iraqi situation, that the intention of the PMF was to create a parallel system to what is in Iran, create a force outside the regular forces to eventually change the regime in Iraq as a whole, to become a kind of a theological regime that's backed by a militia like the PMF, and that also answers to Iran. That's, you know, that's the answer to Iran in terms of the, like, sovereignty of Iraq, overpassing it and, you know, becoming kind of a state that's under the authority of Iran. Same thing in Syria, you know, we saw that same thing in Syria. Same thing in Lebanon.

Murad Ismael: 10:53

So Iran really has been playing these cards for, you know, for almost 40 years. You know, being anti-American and acting on it, being anti-Israel, acting on it and, within the country, creating this radical regime that really that does not, in a way does not even look like it belongs to the Iranian and the Persian culture, but they've managed to stay in power for that long by creating this system of hatred by system of, also, like bullying, I think, bullying countries around it. So Iran has been bullying countries like Iraq, like Lebanon. It has been, you know, bullying even the Gulf states where by building the missiles you know program, which we've seen how strong it is and how advanced it is, you know, over the past couple of days we've seen the way they've been able to hit Israel, even Israel, with probably Israel having actually the strongest or the most advanced you know Iron Dome that any other country has Still, even with that advanced system, still Iranian missiles and rockets can reach to the heart of Tel Aviv and other cities. That, of course, you know, that projection of power through the missiles or the ballistic missiles have really changed also the way that the Gulf state or the Arabic states have approached Iran.

Murad Ismael: 12:23

If you go back, I would say you know, six, seven years or even five, even three, four years, saudis always had an opposite. You know they would always take the opposite side to Iran. What's happening now? Saudis and others are really removing themselves from this conflict with Iran and they're trying to be neutral in the war. And this is what you see currently, actually with neutrality from the Arab states, and I think a lot of them is out of fear of what Iranian able is capable to do For Saudis, for example, what Houthis can do and if they decide to act against Saudis, you know. So Saudis have decided to stay at least neutral with Iran and I think other countries like Qatar, like UAE, oman, other Kuwait, others, have kind of all taken similar position.

Murad Ismael: 13:23

Everybody tries to stay out of this war while leaving, you know, leaving the Israel and US kind of on their own how to act. The other, I would say also the other thing is, like the Iran, iranian friends as well. You know, none of Iranian friends have come to their rescue in this war. Hezbollah hasn't fired a single rocket. You know Hamas is probably, you know, 90% have gone. Hezbollah probably 50%, 60% have been destroyed and also, I think, one of the biggest changes that also allowed this operation to even take place, you know, it was actually a dream, probably something that nobody would believe, that even six months ago, that Israelis will be able to carry on this mission or this attack with so much ease.

Murad Ismael: 14:21

And the main reason is really Israelis are now capable to operate over the skies both in Syria, iraq as well as Lebanon without any opposition or any air defenses. From the news, a lot of the refueling now takes place over Syria and then the Israeli planes can easily make their way to Iran and really bomb almost anywhere they want, including the apartments of the leaders. And that's really something, I think, for people who think this conflict may just stop here. I don't think it will. I think this conflict will continue. I think this conflict will continue at least for weeks until Israel is able to completely destroy the missile program as well as the nuclear program. I think you know from the.

Murad Ismael: 15:24

So, from the military point of view, this is one of probably fastest victories, because you know who would think Israel would be able to. You know to do all this in just a few days or a few weeks. You know being able to destroy the whole defense, air defense for Iran, almost all of it can, you know, move freely anywhere in Iran, even all the way far east of Iran, which is really far from Israel. They can really now reach anywhere and can act anywhere. And I think that's really the majority of the wars already have taken place. You know the change of balance of power have already taken place, taking place.

Murad Ismael: 16:14

I think Iran is no longer the original power that can project power beyond its borders. That much, and even before, let's say even before Israeli strikes not being able to utilize Hamas, for example, not being able to utilize Hezbollah, not being able to utilize Syria, syrian territory for its benefit, the only proxies that they really had were the Houthis and then the Iraq-backed militias, who are also not as powerful as they used to be in face of the, or, let's say, in comparison with the Iraqi government. So Iran lost really this war, I would say this larger war, even before this latest, you know, airstrikes or the latest conflict between them directly with Israel. And that was something I really expected, you know, I expected Israel will take this opportunity to go after Iran and destroy the nuclear program. Because why not, if Israel know for sure that Iran's really one of the main objectives is to remove it off the map, to end its existence, and then, when they have an opportunity, such a great opportunity from the military point of view. Why not act on it? When you have open skies over Syria, over Lebanon, over Iraq, where you know Iran is at its weakest point, then you would act on it. And that's what they did.

Murad Ismael: 17:44

I think, from now, regardless of how it goes, you know Israel has already achieved maybe 50, 60 percent of its objectives and I think you know Iranian programs, whether it's nuclear or missiles, or the regional, you know outreach or the regional power is already diminished by at least 50 to 60 percent. Now, the remaining 40 percent, what will happen about that? You know what will happen about the remaining nuclear sites, for example, some of the deep sites that the Israelis cannot penetrate with conventional weapons. You know, in case, for example, the FORDO sites, a lot of talk have been going to that sites, that a lot of talk have been, you know, going to that which, which, which many suggest that us is the only country capable of of destroying it, and you know, I think, israel will eventually destroy it.

Murad Ismael: 18:38

Either way, whether, whether us goes in or not, they may have to do a ground operation. They may have to do some, you know some, some, some type of intelligence or some type of action within iran, just the way they've been doing with other targets. Like they were able to establish a drone base, or at least one or multiple drone bases, they were able to put drones on tracks moving around, they were able to have Mossad agents inside Iran acting. So why not do similar operation with the, let's say, deeper, deep, deep locations within Iran? So from the I think from the strategic point of view, iran has already lost, not only lost its scientists, its leadership, but also lost control over its skies, lost control over almost any location it has. So there is no location within Iran that's now immune from the Israeli airstrikes. And that's if you compare that to what Iran is capable to do, basically shoot rockets. And the number of rockets they've been able to shoot successfully is decreasing with time, and to me they will be just similar to what Hamas was doing initially is decreasing with time, and to me they will be just similar to what Hamas was doing initially, what Hezbollah was doing. You know they start with very high number of rockets projectiles and then with time, that number reduces to eventually nothing. That's what happened with Hamas, that's what happened with Hezbollah, and to me that's going to be the same thing that happens with Iran At a point, you know, in the next couple weeks or days, iran will not be able to shoot more rockets because Israelis would have destroyed all the launchers, they would have destroyed all the storages, they would have destroyed all the factories that produces these materials.

Murad Ismael: 20:22

So you know, a lot of the discussion on the US intervening to me is actually too much. The US did, already, took the backseat. You know, watch this happen. You know, let's say, watch Israelis take. While it's true the Israelis use the US weapons or equipment and probably US intelligence as well, but the Israelis acted on their own and they took also all the reaction, or all the, let's say all the impact. They also took all the impact themselves. So if US comes in at this, let's say 60 percent already what's destroyed from the Iranian power, there will be retaliation against the US. But I think that will not be in the levels that many fear. And from Trump's point of view, keeping this kind of an open-ended, like pretending that the US is actually part of the war but not part of the war, you know, to me that's just more. It's really a media show. I think to me the actual war Israelis have already done it and the actual result. Also Israelis will, you know, should take credit for it.

Murad Ismael: 21:48

While it's true, probably it's, yeah, definitely without the American weapons Israel will not be able to do that, but on the other side, I think Israel is also the country that is probably using the American weapons more efficiently than even the US. You know, I think this operation would have been very difficult for the US to do. It would be very expensive. Let's say, if US was to go after Iran using its own equipment and its own power, it would have cost at least a trillion dollars, maybe $2 trillion, to do these operations, while Israelis have done this at really very low cost If you think about it. Very low cost, yes, a lot of pre-intelligence, a lot of the work that was done before the operations, but practically they really haven't put so much money into it. Definitely not trillions, definitely not hundreds of billions, maybe five billions, I don't know ten billions, but that's a very small amount of money compared to what they spent on the war against Hezbollah or the war against the Hamas.

Murad Ismael: 22:53

So from, I think, military point of view, this is actually already a victory for Israel and this will push back the threat of Iran on Israel for at least 10 years or 20 years, until the Iranian regime is able again to gather its force, is able again to manufacture what it's been able to manufacture and probably will never be able to do that. I think if you look back to, for example, what Israelis did to the Iraqi nuclear back in 1979, example, what Israelis did to the Iraqi nuclear back in 1979, iraq was never able to go back and do it because, you know, other things come, other challenges come toward the country and especially with a country like Iran that's under sanctions, that a country, that a regime that's not in accord with its own citizens, a challenging economy, a deflation at, I guess, a challenging economy, deflation at, I guess, 40 percent or higher, from really every aspect, iran will not be able to rebuild what Israel has already destroyed. So from the military point of view, I think already Israel has achieved a win and probably they will continue until they destroy the remaining missile program, until they destroy the remaining nuclear program, with or without US help. Now I think one thing that I've also written about is it's really important that Israel does not go after the civilian infrastructure in Iran, and they might do that. So if they want to delay Iranian regime, you know, from gathering again its force or its power. They will go after, let's say, electricity after, after petrochemicals who make up a big chunk of the Iranian GDP and refineries, gas you know, lng gas productions and, as I said, one of the main things, electricity. So not only going after military targets but going after civilian targets.

Murad Ismael: 25:17

I think that let's say from the yeah, from the delaying the Iranian regime, to come back to the point that it's right now people are okay with Israel going after the regime, but a lot of people do not want the Iranian people to suffer for the next, let's say, 20 to 40 years, or even for a very, very long time. They don't want the people to suffer. So going after civilian infrastructure will make Iranians suffer as a people. So I think that would be something probably for the Israelis would be a good thing not to do, even though I think they might do, given how the remaining, you know, war plays out. They might do, but I think that would be something would be good to avoid and would be something also good for the US to push the Israelis so that they don't go after the civilian infrastructure, like electricity, like refineries, etc.

Murad Ismael: 26:17

So I think you know, going back a little bit to the US position, whether US is going to undertake these strikes. And we see, everybody sees how US has been mobilizing equipment to the region for the past couple, past week or so. And you know Trump being so vague about whether he goes in or doesn't go in and he's been trying to do that for a while now, not to be predictable, but I mean likely, to me likely US will go into this war but they will go probably. Even, you know, maybe in a few weeks, when Israel already destroyed you know most of the Iranian infrastructure, where the reaction Iran reaction to the US would be. You know a minimum and US can control it, because I think one thing US doesn't want to do is to go after Iran first and then, you know, see all its bases in Iraq and Syria and the Gulf, you know to be threatened in a significant way.

Murad Ismael: 27:11

You know overwhelming number of missiles I was just checking. You know how much, how many missiles you know Iran actually has. I mean, at least some sources say 3,000, 4,000 missiles. They already had and but I think, with Israel going after shortages, israel going after lunchers, then that Iran's ability to retaliate is diminishing very quickly. It's actually very quickly diminishing, but it will still. Iran will still retaliate if US to go after Iranian nuclear sites in a more serious way. You know Iran will retaliate, at least symbolically, because I think one at least. You know this regime will. If they lose nuclear, if they lose the missiles, I mean, the last thing they are going to hold into it is to stay in power and I think they will be able to stay in power.

Murad Ismael: 28:06

Now you know sometimes things go in directions that you really don't know how they will go, just like what happened in Syria, for example, six months ago, that nobody thought that that situation in Syria can be in this way, where you know you have an entirely different regime within six months. Assad family that was in power for like 50 years is gone and you have a whole new system, a whole new thing. And that could, something could happen in Iran. I think you know, except of, let's say, except of the organized armed resistance in Iran, which is there's currently only the Kurdish, you know armed resistance is in place inside Iran and outside Iran, mostly in the Kurdistan region and elsewhere, mostly in the Kurdistan region and some in Iran, but that's the only armed opposition I think that exists within Iran by the people of Iran, but you don't have armed, organized opposition like what you had in Syria, where they were ready to go in and they were planning and working on that plan for years until they had the opportunity, when the regime was at its weakest points, they intervened.

Murad Ismael: 29:21

So something similar to that might not be a reality. Especially, the opposition is mostly the Kurdish armed possibilities. If you took, let's say if you look at the composition of mostly the Kurdish armed possibilities, if you look at the composition of Iran Kurds, who make only 10 percent, it will be very difficult, I think, for 10 percent of the population to push. I mean unless the Kurdish opposition, armed opposition, comes together with other civilian opposition or let's say the people's opposition inside Iran and they are able to do something which is possible where a change, a regime change by the people of Iran take place when the regime at its weakest point, just the way the Israelis were able to act on Iran when it was at its weakest point. But I think more likely the regime in Iran will be able to survive this and you know American and Israel mostly, and Americans maybe at some point will finish off the nuclear program. They will finish off the missiles program, they will finish off the strategic weapons manufacturing, et cetera, but the regime will stay in power.

Murad Ismael: 30:26

And you know, to me that's really one of the biggest things that also I wanted to make this episode about. You know, yes, military intervention would address the risk, or the regional risk for other countries, whether it's Israel, whether it's Lebanese, whether it's Iraqis, et cetera. It will shorten Iran's hand in the region, which I think many are are really, really happy to see it happening, especially happening at no cost. You know, if you saw this, probably seven years ago, saudis would be very happy to pay a trillion dollar to get Iran to where it is right now, but now they got Iran to this point without paying a single dollar. Same with a lot, you know, with Lebanese, for example, who, for the first time, they've been able to really have a perspective of a country that does not have these parallel militias that make its own decisions, its own wars, its own actions outside of the state. Same thing for Syrians for the first time in 50, 60 years, they are able to think about a different future, whether it's a good or a bad future, but it's a different future than what it had. And that was all possible by Iran being weak or at weak point.

Murad Ismael: 31:42

Now, you know, iranian people may be also benefiting from this if they're able to mobilize, if they're able to change the regime, but I don't see it happening. The regime is still very strong, but I don't see it happening. The regime is still very strong. The regime still has the Revolutionary Guard of, you know, 300,000, 400,000 well-armed people and no country is going also to go after Israel with ground forces. The age of ground forces is gone. You know, no big country will go after another country with ground forces. I think Americans learn from that and then Russians are the second to learn from it.

Murad Ismael: 32:19

Right now, going to war with Ukraine. I think the only country will do it probably is somebody like Israel who just go to Gaza. They're not going to go beyond Gaza, they're not going to go to Lebanon, they're not going to go to Syria that much, because it's really exhausting the ground. Wars are exhausting, they are expensive and nobody is willing to do it. So nobody is going to go after the Iranian regime, but they will go just after the Iranian infrastructure and the worst thing would be for Israel or Americans or anyone.

Murad Ismael: 32:49

You know, the worst thing for the Iranian people would be. If they just go after electricity, after civilian infrastructure, after the living what provides living to the Iranians and a lot of it is industrial too, because Iran is an industrial country and a lot of it is industrial. So if they just go after Iranian industry, they go after Iranian power, electricity then Iranian people will be left with a regime that's even more brutal because it is now at risk of existence and is going to react. We saw that, for example, in Iraq after 1991, when Saddam was able to stay in power. After Americans, you know, removed all his power, he became more brutal toward the Iraqi people. And in addition to that government and the regime being more brutal, also, you have economic you know economy of the country will go down, probably a few, you know a lot more than what it is right now. So people will live in more poverty, the government will be more brutal, the regime will be more brutal and then there's no way out of it. To me that would be the worst thing and that's probably what's going to happen to the Iranian people are going to suffer for the next 10 to 20 years just by the fact that nobody is willing to put any resources into the regime change, unless you know, unless, let's say, regime change happened as a byproduct of what they're doing for other regional geopolitical interests, like what Israel is doing right now. So to me that would be like the worst thing now. So to me that would be like the worst thing.

Murad Ismael: 34:40

You know, I think, the other, probably a few other important angles of this conflict. You know what will be, what options the Iranian regime will have, let's say after, let's say it survives and it stays without a deal with the United States, and with the United States, mainly, what options they have. I think one option is one of the threats they've been making, which is to cut off the oil routes through the Strait of Hormuz, and that's something they can do, like how Houthis have been doing in the Red Sea. I think Iranian regime will probably turn eventually to be something like Houthis, which is very it's actually very sad for them. You know to be a regional power and to project power. You know power through several countries, to be on negotiating tables with the big countries, and then you end up to be like a Houthi, a lawless group that just cuts oil routes without really real power, which I think that's how the Iranian regime will end up. Of course, it's nobody's fault. It's its fault when, of course, you create enemies for no reason, first for no reason.

Murad Ismael: 35:58

I think Iran again had no reason to create this big enemy, small enemy. For 40 years Iran could have been one of the most successful countries, industrial country in the heart of the Middle East that been very, very successful, much, much more than Turks are. That have been very, very successful much, much more than Turks are. If you compare Iran with Turkey, iran is far more able to be successful in terms of how much energy resources it has, population-wise, how industrial it is, even with sanctions. Iranians have been very successful in terms of technology, for example, if you look to their missile program, that's one of the most successful missiles programs in the world, actually More sophisticated, and they are doing that, being under sanctions. They are manufacturing cars, they are manufacturing a lot of things that actually are an industrial country. Imagine if the regime was able to utilize that for creating a normal state, a normal state that's industrial state, that looks to the future, does not create these enemies, especially enemies that really you have no border with it, and I've been saying that for a long time. You know countries are better off when they act for their national interest.

Murad Ismael: 37:18

And really, if you think it's a religious region I mean, if you think about, from Iranian perspective, going after Israel, going after Americans a lot of it is like a religious kind of a religious. They see it as a religious obligation kind of a religious. They see it as a religious obligation and regimes who follow religious obligations they usually fail because it's not practical in terms of today's geopolitics, because you could be, for example, sharing the same religion with a country nearby, but you have conflicting interests. What really Iran being so, if you build something on a wrong foundation for 40 years, it's going to fail eventually and that's what's happening to it and what's really sad. The Iranian people as a people are going to pay for it and the people with so much potential are going to pay for it and going to go under cycle and cycle of instability. When Iran had a chance to be much more successful than all the Gulf combined, all the Arab Gulf combined, more successful than Turkey, more successful than Israel, more successful than the whole region, they had that option. But really, when you have leaders who take you in the wrong direction, you end up in the wrong place and you end up suffering and your people end up suffering. So this is what really is really sadly happening with Iran.

Murad Ismael: 38:37

I think the implication of that implication of Iran, you know, of Iran power downsizing, as I said, it will have some really positive factors or impacts on the region. It already has had positive changes for Syria. Well, assuming that Syria ends up to be a normal state, not under a state like under Al-Qaeda or ISIS-like regime and, you know, afghanistan-type regime and you know that yet to be seen, so nobody really can predict how Syria is going. But downsizing Iran's power or reducing Iran's power have already, you know, helped Syria to at least see new possibility that was not possible in the past Lebanon to be unified and to be actually acting as a country for the first time, as far as I can remember that Lebanon was never a country that could function as one unit. It was always a country with a parallel militia that has its own country within a country, but that now has gone. Lebanon for the first time has possibility, you know, to find its future. Lebanon for the first time has possibility, you know, to find its future For Iraq, I think the story probably is just going to be starting.

Murad Ismael: 40:03

I think it will be very, you know, unlikely for Iraq to survive the change without any changes within the country, especially with weakening of the Iran. We've seen Iran has been the strongest supporter, along with the US, for the current Iraqi regime, especially kind of, let's say, the last government, but also the government before it. With Iran weakening and with now Syria being under, let's say, the regime that it's under right now, one would have to wait and see how things will play for Iraq. If Iraq can really first let this war go without intervening, just the way they did in Syria, I think that will be a success. You know, not to have immediate, not to create immediate risk for the country, for the people of the country, and let Iran fight its war with Israel, let Israel fight its war with Iran, let them use Iraqi airspace that they've been using, but do not intervene. So that's one thing.

Murad Ismael: 41:10

We've, for example, we've seen the message that come from the Iraq, iran-backed Iraqi militias. They say if US intervenes in the war against Iran, that we're going to strike the US bases inside Iraq. I think that's one thing to watch for and I think that will be something that will be very disastrous for Iraq if Iraq decides or these militias decide to intervene into this conflict, it will be best if Iraq take the position that it took with Syria let things run their courses, natural courses, and then see how things end and then deal with the end state of the situation in Iran, just the way they are able to deal with the situation in Syria. But I think you know, on the positive side, let's say, if Iraq is able to survive, but also government becomes stronger, especially with the elections coming, government becomes stronger and can reduce the power and reach of the militias inside the country who are actually threatening the country as a whole, I think that will be also a success for Iraq and maybe an opportunity will finally come, just like Lebanon, just like Syria. An opportunity will come for Iraq to, you know, to sell its own course without Iranian, you know, upper hand through militias, or you know an Iraq that answers to Iran Now. So with it, I think there's some possibility for Iraq, but of course, a lot of risk too, especially with the election coming up. Iraq could also suffer dramatic changes as a consequence of what happened in Syria, what happened in Lebanon, what's now happening with Iran. But I think if Iraqi politicians are smart in acting with this, they may be able to survive without a lot of suffering.

Murad Ismael: 42:56

For the Iraqi people, it's really important, I think, for Israel not to overreact to a situation with Iran, because I think their reaction to Hamas, with so much casualties among the civilians, has really harmed Israel's position in the world. And while almost nobody regretted or felt sad for Israel going after Hamas, but the Israelis' reaction to the whole situation, the overwhelming use of force, the destruction of, you know, thousands of almost the entire civilian infrastructure and the situation around Israel, especially with Gaza, that's very unsustainable and for you, for them, it's not winning a war. To me, to me, their win over Hamas but leaving Gaza the situation it is right now is not a win in the war and that's a situation you know Israel has to deal with in a humane way. In a humane way, you cannot put 1.7 million Palestinians in the rubbles of war and expect them to survive or expect them to eventually give up and leave. Israel needs a human approach into the Palestinian cause and the Palestinian people more specifically, especially the situation in Gaza. I think dragging on that, while they had initial win, military win, it will eventually turn into an existential threat for Israel if it continues to only see the Palestinian issue from the military lenses and I think, also as someone who survived a genocide from a community that lost its land in many countries in Turkey, in Iraq, in Syria and it's losing its land on Iraq today. Israel should not be adopting a policy of ethnical cleansing and removing people of their land in Gaza and in the West Bank.

Murad Ismael: 45:06

I've spoke to some Jewish friends in the past that will it be possible for Israel to you know, to create a new, even a new thinking in a country that is, that can bring all the people together, whether they are Muslims, they are Christians, they are Jews, and that removes this, you know, this superiority, that of one people over another. It's really important, I think, for Israel to move beyond that, beyond that these people cannot stay here, the people have to leave or we are going to put these people through hell forever. That's not a human way of dealing with population, and for me, someone who has been a friend of the Jewish people, I think it's really important for the Jewish people to think bigger than what it is right now, to think bigger than being in a war zone all the time. You know, I think treating Palestinians in a human way will bring lasting peace to Israel and to Palestinians and to the Jews alike. Because I think we'll be ready. If you just think about your security, if you think about your interest, I think you potentially could lose it all.

Murad Ismael: 46:22

Because let's say for a moment which is true, israel had made a victory over its enemies. It has made a decisive victory over Hamas, a decisive victory against Hezbollah. It's making a decisive victory against Iran. But Israel cannot make a victory against everybody in that region. You know, now, after, let's say, after the weakening of Iran, turkey is the second biggest regional power. If Israel only deals with the region from the military point of view, tomorrow, it will also see itself facing Turkey again, and then you will have a Turkish-Israeli war going on, or at least a conflict which actually is beginning to start in Syria. It starts beginning in Syria, where Turkey is trying to come in. They're already in, but they also try to bring air forces, bring military bases. Then you see Israel facing Turkey right now.

Murad Ismael: 47:17

So you cannot, israel cannot build a country against everybody in that region. You have to build, you have to create a situation where you are able to survive, but also you give the opportunity to others to survive on their areas, on their lands. I think you know giving opportunity for the Palestinians in Gaza to survive on their land, giving opportunity to people of West Bank to survive on their areas, on their lands. I think you know giving opportunity for the Palestinians in Gaza to survive on their land, giving opportunity to people of West Bank to survive on their own. This is a very complicated topic that I do not want to get in it, but I think from the human point of view, you cannot remove people in hundreds of thousands, in millions, from their land because of your own security. You should eventually find a way you know to bring these people in. Of course you cannot. It was not even possible for Israel in the past because, as I said you know, iran's own objective was destruction of Israel. Iran's own objective was to create all these militias around Israel to eventually choke it. So it was not possible until now.

Murad Ismael: 48:10

But I think it's possible in the future, from now on, for Israel to find a new path along with the Palestinians, to find a new path where they can coexist, where they can survive, live together and they can prevent also all these interventions from others, from others, like why Iran will come and intervene in the situation of the Palestinians, where Palestinians can decide their own path, why someone in other countries will come and decide for Lebanese, for the Syrians. You know people should of each country should decide on their own. But that also for the people in Israel and Palestine as well. They have geographic intertwined areas. You know, for one side to think that they can exist and survive without the other, that's just very not practical. To think that they can exist and survive without the other, that's just very not practical.

Murad Ismael: 49:01

So I hope just one last point on this. I just hope this whole situation will end up in a way where it's possible to have a real peace in the region, where stability in the region, where you don't have a side seeking to end existence of the other side. You know where you have people treated in such an inhuman way and for even you know the Jewish people who survived the Holocaust. You know to live in a situation where they bombard with bombs every day. That's not a normal life, even though Israelis are making a victory, but that's not a normal life for people to live and it's really important, I think, to think about, to think bigger than the war, to think about a sustainable peace, that humans can be treated with dignity and respect.

Murad Ismael: 49:53

And I hope also that this weakening of the regime in Iran will not be at the expense or at the cost of the Iranian people, which, to me, is now while countries regional and international are seeking their own interest toward the Iranian regime. But the Iranian people are really the key to future Iran. People are really the key to future Iran. An Iran that is stable, that is normal, that's respecting the human rights, that's respecting its own identity, the beautiful Persian identity. It's really important to think from the angle of the Iranian people, what's really good for the Iranian people, but also leave it with that. That's my biggest fear too, that the Iranian people will really be harmed from this war and they may not be able to benefit from it. And thank you so much, thank you.